The Saeculum of Chaos (what it is and why it matters)
Because Chaos Is Good for Business
As you probably figured out from the spelling, saeculum is a Latin word not English. To put it simply, it refers to a length of time roughly equal to the potential lifetime of a person or, a bit more complex, the time from the moment that a significant event happened (for example a great war) until the point in time that most of the people who were alive during that first period have died. Roughly speaking you could say that a saeculum is a cyclical period in history that lasts for between 80 to a 100 years, basically it’s a natural century.
The saeculum as I refer to it here is in academia better known as the Strauss–Howe Generational Theory but, in my opinion, that theory is a bit too American centred so I prefer to use the word saeculum like the Romans did about 2000 years ago.
The cyclical nature of a saeculum comes from the fact that each one goes through four distinct periods of about 20 to 25 years, hence the reference to generations. According to the theory, every saeculum ends with a period of crisis which is followed by a recovery that signals the beginning of a new cycle.
This period of recovery is by Strauss and Howe referred to as the High. It is a period during which social institutions such as family, government and education are strong and individualism is weak. Society as a whole is confident about where it wants to go and collectively set out to achieve those goals.
After about twenty-something years, the saeculum wave turns to a period of Awakening. This is a time when the people tire of social discipline and want to recapture a sense of “self-awareness” and “personal authenticity”. People coming of age during this period tend to look back on the previous High as an era of cultural and spiritual poverty and so fiercely attack the thus far well-respected social institutions in the name of personal freedom.
At the height of this recapturing of personal authenticity, the saeculum turns to a time of Unravelling. This period is basically the opposite of the high. Social institutions are weak and distrusted whereas individualism is strong and flourishing.
Finally, as the saeculum makes its last turn, we enter a period of Crisis. This is an era of destruction, often involving war, revolutions or other social upheavals. The social institutions are demolished and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to specific cultural groups. This is also where chaos enters the scene.
The Millennial Saeculum
To paint a clear picture, I’d like to give you an overview of the current saeculum. The Millennial Saeculum, as Strauss and Howe have named our time, began right after World War II, obviously a time of crisis and can be expected to have gone full circle by the end of this decade. Let’s put some years to the periods.
For the sake of clarity, I’ve divided the saeculum into four periods of 20 years. This is not exactly how Strauss and How have defined it but, as I mentioned earlier, their study is very American focussed and so they needed their periods to match events in US history. Let’s just say that history isn’t quite an exact science.
As you can see, the High period of the current saeculum ran from 1946 to 1966. It was a period of post-war reconstruction, economic expansion and the birth of social welfare in most Western countries. It was also the time when the baby-boomers were born and came of age. And once the first boomers were old enough to vote, the saeculum turned.
From 1967 to 1987 there was a period of awakening. As the era unfolded, an anti-establishment counterculture emerged, especially in the West. As time moved on, other dynamic subcultures developed, ranging from hippies in the 70s to yuppies in the 80s. But then, with the Wall Street Crash of 1987, the saeculum turned again.
The last decade of the 20th century was a time of neoliberalism in economics and culture wars fighting for the individual rights of gays, transgenders and ethnic minorities. Then, in the first decade of the 21st century we witnessed an increase in conspiracy theories against governments, wars fought for very selfish reasons and a collapse of the international financial system, culminating in a great economic recession and a distrust of banks in general. With this recession of 2008-2009 we entered our current period, the crisis.
Assuming you’ve kept an eye on the news over the past couple of years, I don’t think I need to explain why this is a period of crisis. Terrorist attacks all over the globe, ISIS, China and Russia vying to regain their positions as super-powers, the Trump presidency in America and, of course, the COVID-19 pandemic. I think it’s fair to say we’re in a crisis. So where does this leave us?
Why Chaos Might Be a Good Thing
Well, actually this is where things get interesting. As you can see, we can expect this crisis period to last until around 2029. However, before the saeculum turns once again towards another High era, the last part of a crisis is dominated by a time of chaos. Now I’m aware that this sounds horrible, we’ve all learnt to fear chaos. It’s a horrible thing. But let me reassure you, chaos doesn’t necessarily have to be a bad thing.
So why would chaos be a good thing, you wonder. Well, there’s a couple of reasons for that. First, chaos changes the rules. Throughout the three periods preceding a time of crisis, people developed a path-dependency created by the new world order set during the high era of the saeculum. As time goes by, people rely more and more on rules, procedures and frameworks to understand the world around them. Sure, over time there will be some rebellion against this but during the unravelling period, for example, the order tends to be rephrased, not so much abolished. During a crisis; however, people’s needs and perspectives change dramatically. This leads to a feeling of urgency. This urgency leads to action and action leads to innovation. And it’s innovation that leads to paradigm shifts that lead to changing the rules.
Once the rules by which a society functions have changed, a whole new window of opportunities opens up. Only for those who are able to recognize these opportunities, of course, but we’ll get to that in a later lesson. To visialize this you might want to view chaos like a large rock being thrown into water. The rock will sick to the bottom, but not before creating ripples; ripples of opportunities
Then, more importantly, chaos shuffles the deck and changes who is in the lead. I mean, there is a reason why companies like FedEx, Microsoft and Apple were founded during times of serious economic recessions.
Probably most controversial, chaos can actually be controlled. I know this sounds counter-intuitive, but, with a bit of effort, you can find opportunities in chaos and turn them into viable business ideas.
Looking at similar eras during previous saeculums, we can draw the following conclusions. During a time of chaos people are in pursuit of answers and entrepreneurs tend to be the people who find those answers. Once they know what to look for, that is, but more about that later. People will also want to make up for lost time and, on the whole, they are more willing to take risks. I’m sure you can imagine the amount of business opportunities this will create for the entertainment, travel and adventure sports industries.
Naturally these first three reasons will mean that more people want to have a go at being an entrepreneur and this will result in a more positive attitude from governments, banks and society as a whole towards entrepreneurship. Also, as there will be more entrepreneurs, the middle class will grow.
Finally, as the middle class tends to have some disposable income, there will be an increased need for opulence. In other words, people will want to buy more stuff. And that is what businesses do, they produce and sell stuff. Therefore the Saeculum of Chaos matters because it’s good for business.
[T]here you are.
