Cognitive Biases Muddling Your Brain
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Cognitive Biases | In a 2008, researchers at the University of California-San Diego reported that the average human today (or actually a decade ago) processes around 34 Gb of information each and every day. Information which comes to us via TV, newspapers, books, magazines, emails, social media and a multitude of other sources.
As that research was conducted some time before the massive increase in popularity of social media, it only makes sense that this number has increased significantly over the years. This isn’t necessarily a problem as the human mind is capable of dealing with as many as 10 quadrillion ( that’s 10 with 15 zeros) processes per second. Not all information is equal though, and that’s where the problem begins.
A large part of the information we’re bombarded with everyday consists of advertising. The whole idea behind advertising is to convince us to buy stuff we don’t actually need but — thanks to the ads — desperately want. To achieve their goal, most advertising agencies heavily rely on logical fallacies (i.e. error in logical argumentation) to trick our brains. But logical fallacies are called logical for a reason. They are problems we can recognize and deal with. A bigger problem are our cognitive biases.
Cognitive biases are the reason why we can’t wait for the mud to settle. A cognitive bias is a structural deficiency or limitation in our thinking — a flaw in judgment that arises from errors of memory, social attribution, and unintentional miscalculations. Some social psychologists believe cognitive biases are an evolutionary development which helps us process information more efficiently, especially in dangerous situations.
Cognitive biases might have been a great tool in prehistoric fight-or-flight encounters, in today’s complex societies they often cause serious errors in judgment. The sad reality is that, unlike logical fallacies, we can’t really effectively deal with them (most cognitive biases sneak upon us at an unconscious level), but we should at least be aware of them.
Below, in random order a list of 12 of the most common (there are many more) cognitive biases that plague us when we need to be rational.
12 Most Common Cognitive Biases
(1) Status-Quo Bias
We all dislike change, and this often leads us to make choices that guarantee that things remain the same. We like to stick to our routines, buy the same brands, and order the same meals in restaurants. It’s the unwarranted assumption that the unknown will always be inferior to the known. This bias can best be summed up with the saying, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” — an adage that has fuelled our conservative tendencies for generations.
(2) Confirmation Bias
We love to agree with people who agree with us. It’s why we prefer to hang out with people who think what we think and like the same things. We tend to be put off by individuals, groups, and news sources that make us feel uncomfortable or insecure about our views. It’s this bias that puts us at risk only paying attention to those perspectives that fuel our pre-existing views, while ignoring or dismissing opinions — no matter how valid — that threaten our world view.
(3) Post-Purchase Rationalization
Remember that time you bought something totally unnecessary, faulty, or overly expense, and then rationalized that purchase to such an extent that you convinced yourself it was a great idea all along? Well, that’s this bias in action — it’s a kind of built-in cognitive mechanism that makes us feel better after making a crappy decision. It’s a way of subconsciously justifying our purchases, especially those involving our hard-earned cash.
(4) Ingroup Bias
This bias is really just a manifestation of our innate preference for tribalism. It makes us suspicious, fearful, and even disdainful of others. Much of this is caused by oxytocin — the so-called “love molecule.” This neurotransmitter, helps us to forge tighter bonds with people in our ingroup, but performs the exact opposite function for those on the outside. Ultimately, this bias causes us to overestimate the abilities of the people we know at the expense of the ones we don’t.
(5) Neglecting Probability
Very few people have a problem getting into a car and going for a drive, but many fear flying. Yet virtually all of us know and acknowledge the fact that the probability of dying in a fender bender is significantly greater than getting killed in a plane crash — but our brains won’t accept this crystal-clear logic. It’s the same phenomenon that makes us worry about getting killed in an act of terrorism as opposed to something far more probable, like slipping in the bathroom.
(6) Observational Selection Bias
This is the effect of suddenly noticing things we didn’t really notice before — but we wrongly assume that the frequency has increased. A perfect example of this is when you buy a new car and then see that same make virtually everywhere. Of course, they were always there but you just never noticed them. It’s also the cognitive bias that contributes to the feeling that certain things or events couldn’t possibly be a coincidence (even though they are).
(7) Negativity Bias
We tend to pay more attention to bad news. This is not because we’re that morbid but because we perceive it as being more important or profound. We also tend to give more credibility to bad news. A perfect example of this bias in action is the fact that crime, violence, war, and other injustices have been steadily declining for decades, yet most people today will argue that things have never been this bad and are getting worse.
(8) Bandwagon Effect
Though we’re often unconscious of it, we love to go with the flow of the crowd. When the masses pick a favourite, our individualized brains shut down and enter into a kind of “groupthink” or beehive mentality— regardless of the lack of evidence in support. It doesn’t even have to be a large crowd. It could just be a small group, like your family, friends or colleagues. Much of this bias has to do with our built-in desire to fit in and conform.
(9) Projection Bias
We tend to assume that most people think just like us — though there’s no actual justification for this. This cognitive shortcoming often leads to assume a consensus exists when there is none. It also creates the rather dangerous effect where the members of a radical or fringe group assume that more people on the outside agree with them than really is the case. Or the exaggerated confidence we all have when predicting the winner of an election or sports match.
(10) The Current Moment Bias
It can be hard to picture yourself in the future and alter your behaviours and expectations accordingly. Most of us rather experience pleasure in the current moment, while leaving the pain for later. It’s of particular concern to economists and health practitioners as it stops us from investing money or making healthy choices today. It’s a bias best summarized with the unfortunate saying, “If only I had known that earlier…”
(11) Anchoring Effect
Also known as the relativity trap, this is our tendency to compare and contrast only a limited set of items. We unconsciously fixate on a value or number that we then compare to everything else. The classic example is an item at the store that’s on sale; we tend to see (and value) the difference in price, but not the overall price itself. This is why restaurant menus feature very expensive meals, accompanied by (so it seems) more reasonably priced ones.
(12) Gambler’s Fallacy
Not so much a bias but more a glitch in our thinking. We tend to put a tremendous amount of weight on previous events, believing that they’ll somehow influence future outcomes. The classic example is coin-tossing. After flipping heads, say, five consecutive times, our inclination is to predict an increase in likelihood that the next coin toss will be tails; that the odds must certainly be in the favour of heads. In reality, however, the odds are still 50/50.
[T]here you are.
In case you’re wondering what the next line of ‘code’ on the heading image is, it’s: 13112221.
Why? That I’ll let you work out all by yourself. 😉